DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY: OVERSHOOTING EFFECTIVENESS IN LARGE SCALE MILITARY SYSTEMS

Abstract

Theoretical discussion proposing that the minimum expected cost of developing a large scale military system under conditions of uncertainty is achieved by over-shooting effectiveness goals. Implications of the theory in regard to the timing of planning and acquisition are explored and the relationship between the theory and policy is discussed. (Author)

Open PDF

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
May 01, 1963
Accession Number
AD0409470

Entities

People

  • Peter T. Fox

Organizations

  • MITRE Corporation

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • C4I
  • Human Systems
  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Acquisition
  • Air Force
  • Command And Control
  • Computer Programming
  • Dynamic Programming
  • Engineering
  • Equations
  • Government Procurement
  • Governments
  • Massachusetts
  • Plastic Explosives
  • Probability
  • Probability Distributions
  • Procurement
  • Uncertainty
  • United States

Readers

  • Atmospheric Science / Meteorology, specifically Wind Wave Turbulence.
  • Life Cycle Cost Analysis
  • Theoretical Analysis.