LECTURES ON DECISION THEORY,

Abstract

These lecture notes deal with the mathematical theory of decision-making, i.e., wihematical models of situations in which there is a set of alternative actions, some condition of knowledge concerning the relationship between action and outcome, and an objective of achieving a 'good' or 'best' outcome on the basis of this knowledge. The models are idealizations and simplifications of reality. The comparatively elementary state of the field of individual and group decision-making as a quantitative science, in contrast with a field such as physics, suggests that mathematical theorizing on phenomena of decision-making is very much an exploratory enterprise and that ex isting models have limited generality and appli cability. The purpose is to attempt an exposition of some of the principal notions of this body of theory which will point up many of the essential ideas without entering too deeply into technical mathematical problems. The side of decision making dealt with is the 'normative' aspect of the subject, which is a theoretical approach that is usefully thought of as describing the behavior of the hypothetical 'rational' decision-maker; the normative approach is based upon mathematics, formal deductions, and axiomatics. (Author)

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
May 28, 1963
Accession Number
AD0410789

Entities

People

  • William Karush

Organizations

  • System Development Corporation

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Human Systems

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Contrast
  • Decision Theory
  • Mathematical Analysis
  • Mathematics
  • Theorems

Fields of Study

  • Mathematics

Readers

  • Systems Analysis and Design
  • Theoretical Analysis.