SCORING SYSTEM FOR CATEGORICAL FORECASTS OF CEILING AND VISIBILITY,

Abstract

A system of merits and demerits is derived for the verification of categorical forecasts of either ceiling or visibility, each being divided into five operationally significant classes. A general asymmetrical pattern of progressive penalties is investigated and found, under stated assumptions, to reduce to symmetry. By opti mizing a criterion of statistical sensitivity in comparing two forecasting methods, it is shown that in the typical distribution of class fre quencies, with class 5 more probable than the other four combined, demerits should be zero except when the error concerns class 5. Scoring tables are given for ceiling and visibility at seven air terminals. (Author)

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Mar 01, 1963
Accession Number
AD0413384

Entities

People

  • Joseph G. Bryan

Tags

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Delphi Method
  • Sensitivity
  • Symmetry
  • Terminals
  • Verification
  • Visibility

Readers

  • Statistical inference.
  • Systems Analysis and Design
  • Vision Science/Vision Psychology/Cognitive Neuroscience.