THE NATURE OF RANDOM DEMAND

Abstract

The probability distributions that are pertinent to the description of Navy replacement demand processes are examined. Demand patterns observed in the Navy Supply System indicates that the actual demand process is complicated. Simple Poisson models for demand appear to be useful only in special situations, such as for certain classes of items that have very low demand rates. The remaining situations indicate that there is more ''clumping'' of demand or regularity of time between demands than is predicted by the Poisson model. Such distributions as the negative binomial, stuttering Poisson, geometric Poisson and the Erlang appear frequently in the literature of logistics systems, and are discussed. A systematic analysis of demand distributions is presented.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jul 01, 1961
Accession Number
AD0414725

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Aircrafts
  • Discrete Distribution
  • Equations
  • Exponential Functions
  • Government Procurement
  • Integrals
  • Inventory
  • Mathematical Analysis
  • Mathematical Models
  • Navy
  • Poisson Density Functions
  • Probabilistic Models
  • Probability
  • Probability Density Functions
  • Probability Distributions
  • Random Variables
  • Time Intervals

Readers

  • Logistics and Supply Chain Management.
  • Statistical inference.
  • Theoretical Analysis.