THE ECONOMIC POTENTIAL OF COMMUNIST CHINA. VOLUME 1,
Abstract
This report appraises the Communist Chinese economy, its recent trends, and its potential for growth during the remainder of the 1960's and, in a general way, thereafter. The population, labor force, industrial base, natural resources, and forms of economic organization are analyzed. The gross national product (GNP) and its allocation to military and other major uses are estimated and projected to 1970. The history of the First Five Year Plan, the Great Leap Forward, and the recent economic crisis are studied in detail. It is concluded that the economic crisis has probably now been contained and that recovery is foreseeable, but that the ground lost since the collapse of the Great Leap Forward is such that recovery can only be at moderate rates. During the remainder of this decade, growth of the economy of Communist China can probably not eep pace with that of the Soviet Union and perhaps barely with that of the United States. In 1959, before the economic crisis, the GNP of Communist China was only about one-sixth that of the United States, and the industrial base a far lower fraction. If in the 1970's or later Communist China is to achieve her ambitions of major power status and military force, it will have to be with a fresh start and from a relatively poorer position than at the end of the 1950's. (Author)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jun 01, 1963
- Accession Number
- AD0424526
Entities
People
- Francis P. Hoeber
- Yuan-li Wu
Organizations
- SRI International