AN EXAMINATION OF THE DISTRIBUTION OF HURRICANE FORECAST ERRORS USING PROBABILITY ELLIPSES.
Abstract
The fact that tropical cyclones move in erratic, apparently unpredictable paths has been recog nized by navigators and meteorologists for over half a century. The advent of the international ship reporting system late in the 19th century and aircraft reconnaissance during World War II have created advancements in the tracking of these storms; concurrently, improvements have been made in forecasting storm movement. No presently known technique, however, yield the consistent desired degree of accuracy. Research currently being conducted indicates that the problem of forecasting storm movement is so com plex that it may require many years of research and large expenditures before 'pin point' accu racy may be expected in the forecasts. It must, then, be anticipated that the official warnings will contain errors. Records of forecast errors provide a source of information from which the nature of the expected forecast errors may be deduced in order that fleet commanders may better ''live'' with the errors made. (Author)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Oct 01, 1963
- Accession Number
- AD0426946
Entities
Organizations
- naval air station