A STATISTICAL APPROACH TO 2-7 HR PREDICTION OF CEILING AND VISIBILITY. VOLUME I,
Abstract
The statistical forecast technique Regression Estimation of Event Probabilities (REEP) is applied to predicting ceiling and visibility at Chicago and three West Coast terminals for periods of 2, 3, 5 and 7 hours. The REEP forecast systems developed for each of the 36 predictands are applicable at any hour of the day and any day of the year. The systems were applied to an independent sample of 1460 cases for each predictand. The resulting forecasts were compared to forecasts prepared by the subjective forecaster under routine operational conditions, and to forecasts made by two control techniques, persistence and Climatological Expectancy of Persistence (CEP). The forecasts made by the four techniques are expressed in categorical and/or probabilistic form. The cat- egorical forecasts are evaluated by a score de- vised by the U. S. Weather Bureau and designed to measure skill in forecasting operationally important categories of ceiling and visibility. (Author)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Sep 01, 1964
- Accession Number
- AD0451123
Entities
People
- Edna L. Sorenson
- Isadore Enger
- John A. Russo Jr.