THE ECONOMIC POTENTIAL OF COMUNIST CHINA. VOLUME 3. REAPPRAISAL, 1962-1970,
Abstract
Volume 1 pointed out that the economic resources of Communist China constrain her military and related options. The growth of the economy to the time of the attempted Great Leap of 1958 was analyzed, together with the subsequent collapse beginning with the agricultural disasters of 1959 and the industrial crisis of 1960-61; it was tentatively concluded '' . . . that the economic crisis has probably now been contained and that recovery is foreseeable, but that the ground lost since the collapse of the Great Leap Forward is such that can only be at moderate rates.'' The present volume confirms this finding. The estimates of possible achievements by 1970 are somewhat increased as compared with those in Volume 1, the probable rate of growth remaining about the same but the point of departure in 1962 being higher. The estimated 1970 GNP is 15 to 30 percent above that of 1960, which would mean small or negligible gains per capita. (Author)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- May 01, 1964
- Accession Number
- AD0452210
Entities
People
- Francis P. Hoeber
- Fred C. Hung
- Mabel M. Rockwell
- Yuan-li Wu
Organizations
- SRI International