OFFICER PROMOTION PROCEDURES. II. FEASIBILITY OF COMPUTER APPLICATIONS IN THE PROMOTION OF USAF OFFICERS,
Abstract
This study reviews initial results of research designed to test the feasibility of using an electronic computer to assist in the USAF promotion process. Mechanics of the selection process are explained and relationships examined between information contained in officer personnel files and selection for promotion under the existing system. Coded magnetic tape records of eligible officer groups were analyzed to derive an equation for each group which, when applied to known selection folder variables, produced a predicted promotion score for each individual. These scores were cross-validated against board scores for a number of officer groups and proved highly predictive of actual selections. Accuracy of prediction varies with the grade of the group being considered. Predictive accuracy is most precise for those cases in the high and low score areas and less accurate for those falling near the selection cut off imposed by quota limitations. Techniques were suggested for using computer processed data to support promotion actions and to improve selection reliability with a reduced net workload. (Author)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Oct 01, 1964
- Accession Number
- AD0453086
Entities
People
- Ernest C. Tupes
- Ray W. Alvord