THE THREAT FACTOR IN COST-EFFECTIVENESS ANALYSES.

Abstract

The threat factor is considered in cost-effectiveness analysis and similar military studies in order to provide a range of portrayals that influence the achievement of the objective. These portrayals permit testing the sensitivity of alternative courses of action to the threat assumptions. Standard threat course materials require modification in light of the specific analysis under study because of the response of the enemy to the friendly moves under study. The major threat parameters are time, the enemy, locale, type of warfare, political context, and technology. These parameters are variable uncertainties within themselves and interact with each other. The magnitude of these combined uncertainties can be reduced to a manageable number and range by carrying three threat estimates through the analysis: 'optimistic' and 'pessimistic,' which bracket confidence of likelihood of occurring. (Author)

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jun 01, 1966
Accession Number
AD0484201

Entities

People

  • Irving Heymont

Tags

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Cost Effectiveness
  • Costs
  • Materials
  • Standards
  • Uncertainty

Readers

  • Life Cycle Cost Analysis
  • Strategic Security Studies
  • Systems Analysis and Design