A GENERAL METHOD OF PROBABILITY PREDICTIONS IN SYNOPTIC METEOROLOGY

Abstract

This report describes a method of objectively calculating the maximum (limiting) probability that predictions, made by standard quantitative techniques, will succeed. The method presented is based on specialized probability theory but the theory is not emphasized here. Rather, calculations of quantities set forth in this report are explained and interpreted with examples of application. Such limiting probabilities are concluded to be valuable in determining the reliability of results produced by given forecast techniques.

Open PDF

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Mar 10, 1966
Accession Number
AD0486571

Entities

People

  • Thomas A. Gleeson

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Classification
  • Contractors
  • Delphi Method
  • Geographic Regions
  • Graphs
  • Grids
  • Meteorology
  • Normal Distribution
  • Northern Hemisphere
  • Probability
  • Reliability
  • Research Facilities
  • Sampling
  • Sea Level
  • Security
  • Standards
  • Test And Evaluation

Readers

  • Atmospheric Science/Meteorology
  • Mathematical Modeling and Probability Theory.
  • Systems Analysis and Design