AN APPLICATION OF BAYES THEOREM AS A HYPOTHESIS-SELECTION AID IN A COMPLEX INFORMATION-PROCESSING SYSTEM.
Abstract
The first of a series of experiments investigating the value of automated hypothesis-evaluation aids in multimanmachine systems devoted to assessing or diagnosing threat is described. In the experiment, an eight-man team evaluated threats posed by a hypothetical aggressor. The team made these evaluations on the basis of intelligence information gathered during simulated reconnaissance overflights of aggressor's territory. The primary output of the threat-evaluation team was the commanding officer's posterior probabilities estimates as to aggressor's most likely hostile strategies. During half of the experimental trials, the commander had access to computer-produced posterior probabilities based upon a modification of the Bayes Theorem. The major experimental issue was whether or not these would aid the commander in his hypothesis evaluation. Also investigated was the effect of data-processing load upon system operation. Although some improvement in the posterior probabilities estimates resulted from the commander's having access to the hypothesis-evaluation aid and this improvement became more pronounced as system load increased, the main-order effect of access to the aid was not found to be statistically significant. (Author)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Aug 01, 1964
- Accession Number
- AD0607256
Entities
People
- Davis A. Schum
- George E. Briggs
- Jack F. Southard
Organizations
- Ohio State University