REPORT ON A LONG-RANGE FORECASTING STUDY

Abstract

This report describes an experimental trend-predicting exercise covering a period extending as far as fifty years into the future. The experiment used a sequence of questionnaires to elicit predictions from individual experts in six broad areas: scientific breakthroughs, population growth, automation, space progress, probability and prevention of war, and future weapon systems. Results of the experiment illuminate a number of points: the contents of the predictions themselves, the bases on which respondents claimed their predictions were made, the spread of expert views, the convergence of views following data feedback, the expert's critiques of each other's views, and not least of all, the weaknesses of the method and the possible means for improving it.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Sep 01, 1964
Accession Number
AD0607777

Entities

People

  • Olaf Helmer
  • T. J. Gordon

Organizations

  • RAND Corporation

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Biomedical
  • Energy and Power Technologies
  • Sensors
  • Space
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Agreements
  • Arms Control
  • Artificial Satellites
  • Contingency Operations (Military)
  • Contraception
  • Directed Energy Weapons
  • Families (Human)
  • Governments
  • International Relations
  • Law
  • Lepidoptera
  • Medical Personnel
  • Nuclear Weapons
  • Operational Readiness
  • Spacecraft
  • Warfare
  • Weapon Systems

Readers

  • Strategic Security Studies
  • Systems Analysis and Design
  • Team-Based Human-Centered Cognitive Task Decision Making and Information Performance.

Technology Areas

  • Space