THE MODIFIABILITY OF DECISIONS MADE IN A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT,
Abstract
This research is concerned with the question of whether a decision maker's sensitivity to incoming information undergoes any change after he has reached a decision. A dynamic decision task, embedded in a limited war context, was presented to the subject who was required to assess simulated reconnaissance reports and to estimate the location of the enemy's main force. After a certain number of trials in which the information samples pointed to one of the alternative locations, the subject was then presented with a growing body of contraindicative information. An experimental study of the factors influencing decision modification was designed to test the effect of three main variables: (1) nature of the original condition, (2) length of time over which expectations were built up, and (3) amount of change represented in the shift from the initial condition to the post-decision situation. Twelve subjects were tested individually in a series of six periods. The facility with which subjects modified their decisions was inversely related to the amount of situational change and the amount of experience in the situation before a change was introduced. The results indicated also that more information is required to change a decision than is originally needed to make the decision. Comparison of the subjects' performance scores with those of an 'ideal Bayesian observer' showed highly significant correlations.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Dec 01, 1964
- Accession Number
- AD0610122
Entities
People
- Elizabeth H. Nicol
- Richard S. Gibson