STOCHASTIC DUELS WITH HOMING,

Abstract

Duels where both marksmen 'home' or 'zero in' on one another are here considered, and the effect of this on the win probability is determined. It is proved generally that if the over-all hit probability is fairly and naturally defined, the only possible result of homing must be to worsen a duelist's performance. Next it is shown that a negative binomial distribution of conditional hit probability over rounds exhibits the effect of homing and leads to win probabilities that can be straightforwardly evaluated. Maximum-likelihood estimation of the hit probability and homing from field data is outlined. The solutions of the duels are displayed as contour maps. (Author)

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
May 18, 1965
Accession Number
AD0617773

Entities

People

  • Trevor Williams

Organizations

  • System Development Corporation

Tags

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Binomials
  • Hit Probabilities
  • Mathematics
  • Maximum Likelihood Estimation
  • Probability

Fields of Study

  • Mathematics

Readers

  • Game Theory.
  • Regression Analysis.
  • Systems Analysis and Design