SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF CIVIL DEFENSE SYSTEMS AND COMPONENTS. A COST- EFFECTIVENESS COMPUTER PROCEDURE FOR OPTIMUM ALLOCATION OF FALLOUT SHELTER SYSTEM FUND UNDER UNIFORM OR VARIABLE RISK ASSUMPTIONS

Abstract

The dynamics of civil defense planning and systems evaluation require a procedure that yields approximate answers to questions concerning effective fallout shelter improvement programs. To accomplish this, a computerized model for the CDC 3600 is developed and demonstrated for OCD Region 6. The model permits an evaluation of shelter improvement programs against any fallout environment, but it is particularly valuable when RISK-type expressions of the probable fallout environment are used as inputs. Using detailed data from the National Fallout Shelter Survey and equally detailed estimates of the probable fallout hazard in a small area (counties, in the demonstration), the extent to which an area's population is inadequately protected is determined. Fallout shelter system funds are then allocated to areas of need in an optimal manner. The allocation employs shelter cost data obtained from Phase 2 of the National Fallout Shelter Survey on ventilation and shielding improvements. Estimated costs for package ventilation (PKV) and shelter in new construction are also employed in the demonstration in OCD Region 6. In all, 14 cost studies are run, using selected combinations of the budget level, the fallout risk level, etc.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Oct 01, 1965
Accession Number
AD0624701

Entities

People

  • Floyd M. Guess

Organizations

  • RTI International

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • C4I
  • Counter WMD
  • Human Systems
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Basements
  • Blast
  • Casualties
  • Civil Defense
  • Computer Programming
  • Computer Programs
  • Cost Effectiveness
  • Defense Systems
  • Fallout Shelters
  • Geographic Regions
  • North Carolina
  • Operations Research
  • Plastic Explosives
  • Shelters
  • Standards
  • Two Dimensional
  • United States

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Life Cycle Cost Analysis
  • Nuclear Civil Defense.