SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF CIVIL DEFENSE SYSTEMS AND COMPONENTS. VOLUME 3. A GENERALIZED SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF CD SYSTEMS
Abstract
This sensitivity analysis employs mathematical models which estimate the total dose, Maximum ERD, and probability of casualty or fatality for an individual exposed to a particular radiological environment. The objective of the analysis is to determine the relative importance of the parameters normally employed in evaluating Civil Defense systems; i.e., to determine those parameters which, through large variance or inaccurate estimates, will contribute most to erroneous evaluations of CD systems. The sensitivity of the dose (or probability of casualty) to variations in the input parameters defining the radiological environment is examined. The total dose model is analytical and the ERD model is computerized. The parameters examined are reference intensity, time of arrival, time outside in fallout, radiation decay exponent, ERD recovery fraction, ERD recovery rate, duration of fallout buildup, and protection factor. Sensitivity indices are calculated for each parameter. The sensitivity index is defined as the fractional change in dose (or probability of casualty or fatality) divided by the corresponding fractional change in the input variable. It is concluded that dose and casualty computations are quite sensitive to errors in the field decay exponent, and they remain sensitive over the examined range.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Oct 01, 1965
- Accession Number
- AD0624703
Entities
People
- John H. Neblett
- Kenneth E. Willis
Organizations
- RTI International