A GENERAL THEORY OF FINITE SEQUENTIAL DECISION PROCESSES.

Abstract

This paper discusses the structure and analysis of sequential decision processes within the restriction of a formulation involving only finite sets. A definition of the phrase 'finite sequential decision process' is presented, using the notions of action sets, outcome sets, conditional probabilities, histories, and availability functions. To the best of our knowledge this formulation is more general than any presented to date, and it is designed to fill an existing gap in the literature of sequential decision processes. The latter part of the paper examines special conditions of homogeneity, availabilities, probabilities, and utilities that reduce the general process to special cases, some of which have been discussed in the literature. Along the way a general expected-utility decision model is presented for the general finite process. The model is based on utilities of terminal histories and probabilities of terminal histories conditioned by strategies. The definition of strategy is based on the notion of decision functions for the various stages of the process. A backward-computational approach for obtaining optimal decision functions is discussed. (Author)

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Feb 01, 1965
Accession Number
AD0625048

Entities

People

  • Peter C. Fishburn

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Availability
  • Literature
  • Probability
  • Terminals

Fields of Study

  • Mathematics

Readers

  • Operations Research
  • Team-Based Human-Centered Cognitive Task Decision Making and Information Performance.
  • Theoretical Analysis.