FURTHER INVESTIGATION OF THE EFFECTS OF REDUCED INPUT DATA FIDELITY UPON THE DETERMINATION OF POSTERIOR PROBABILITIES IN A SIMULATED THREAT-DIAGNOSIS SYSTEM.

Abstract

This is the fifth in a series of experiments on Bayesian diagnostic systems. In this experiment two procedures for obtaining a posteriori (P (H/D)) probability estimates were compared under conditions of low fidelity of input data and various levels of time-stress. In one procedure a computer aggregated the subjects' a priori (P (D/H)) estimates. In the alternate procedure the a posteriori probabilities were estimated by the subjects without computer aid. The results favor the computer-aided procedure and tend to support the use of automated Bayesian hypothesis-selection procedures in diagnostic systems. (Author)

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Dec 01, 1965
Accession Number
AD0631781

Entities

People

  • David A. Schum
  • Irwin L. Goldstein
  • Jack F. Southard

Organizations

  • Ohio State University

Tags

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Computers
  • Probability
  • Reliability

Readers

  • Regression Analysis.
  • Statistical inference.
  • Team-Based Human-Centered Cognitive Task Decision Making and Information Performance.

Technology Areas

  • AI & ML
  • AI & ML - Bayesian Inference