Statistical Analysis of Spacecraft Replenishment

Abstract

This memorandum discusses the number of launches required to establish and maintain a spacecraft system. The mean and dispersion in number of launches are derived for a system consisting of an arbitrary number of exponentially decaying spacecraft and with a constant probability for successful replenishment launches. The report shows the dependence of these results on the spacecraft mean lifetime, the launch success probability, and the number of spacecraft per launch. The results are useful in estimating the probable costs of various spacecraft systems and should be of assistance in comparing such systems. The memorandum was prepared as part of the Advanced Research Projects Agency's VELA Analysis study. An abridged version of this memorandum was published in the Proceedings of the IEEE: Special Issue on Nuclear Test Detection, December 1965.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Mar 01, 1966
Accession Number
AD0631942

Entities

People

  • G. E. Modesitt

Organizations

  • RAND Corporation

Tags

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Abstracts
  • Cost Estimates
  • Costs
  • Data Science
  • Detection
  • Dispersions
  • Information Science
  • Intervals
  • Maintenance
  • Probability
  • Probability Density Functions
  • Probability Distributions
  • Random Variables
  • Replenishment
  • Spacecraft
  • Statistical Analysis
  • Time Intervals

Readers

  • Aerospace Engineering.
  • Calculus or Mathematical Analysis
  • Life Cycle Cost Analysis

Technology Areas

  • Space
  • Space - Satellites