EFFECT OF DEPENDENCE CRITERION ON HIT PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH MULTIPLE WARHEAD OR SALVO FIRINGS,
Abstract
This report consists of a description and comparative study of three math models used in estimating salvo hit probabilities. A 'hit' is said to occur if at least one of the points defining the landing positions of the weapons coincides with a point defining the target area. The essential difference in these models is the assumed statistical dependence between the landing positions of the various members of a salvo. In each model the landing position of each weapon is assumed to have a circular normal distribution function. The first model assumes the landing position of the individual weapons of the salvo are independently and identically distributed. The second model assumes the salvo of weapons is dispersed in a well defined rectangular array. The third model assumes that the weapons which form the salvo are randomly distributed within a randomly distributed circular region where the center of the circle is determined by a random selection from a circular normal distribution. The adopted dependence criteria can, in general have a significant effect on outcomes of salvo firings, and whether or not one model is 'better' than another depends on the range and/or distribution of situations under consideration. (Author)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Mar 25, 1966
- Accession Number
- AD0632846
Entities
People
- Ralph E. Ferguson
- Robert C. Kline
Organizations
- Naval Ordnance Laboratory