TECHNICAL FORECASTING: A PHYSICIST'S VIEW.

Abstract

The report provides a novel philosophic view of the problem of Technological Forecasting. It embeds the problem in the statistical dynamics of human society, in full analogue to the statistical mechanics of molecular systems, and focuses on the ergodic nature of such ensembles or 'societies. The most significant forecasting range is thus to be directed at the changing of the boundary constraints for the system, rather than of its local directions and rates. (Author)

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jul 01, 1966
Accession Number
AD0635811

Entities

People

  • Arthur S. Iberall

Tags

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Analogs
  • Boundaries
  • Delphi Method
  • Dynamics
  • Mechanics
  • Statistical Mechanics

Readers

  • Educational Psychology
  • Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Modeling, Data Assimilation, and Flux Boundary Layers
  • Theoretical Analysis.