DESCRIPTIVE AND NORMATIVE IMPLICATIONS OF THE DECISION THEORY POSTULATES. A SUMMARY OF EXPERIMENTAL RESULTS WITH BUSINESS EXECUTIVES
Abstract
The study deals with decision making under uncertainty, and more specifically with a set of postulates (based on the concepts of utility and personal probability) for consistent decision making. It explores the degree to which these postulates are good descriptions of actual behavior and the degree to which they seem to be good norms. Experiments in the form of decision problems based on each of the postulates were given to experienced business executives. In addition to obtaining basic responses to these problems, a systematic follow-up was made both in written and later in oral form in order to probe the normative implications of the postulates. It is concluded, based on the basic responses, that the decision making theory under study is not a very good description. However--and this is the important point--the subjects tend to regard most of the deviations from the theory as mistakes and if given the opportunity will correct them. This suggests the importance of the postulates in training decision makers in both how to structure decision problems and also how to police their own decisions.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Apr 01, 1966
- Accession Number
- AD0638851
Entities
People
- Kenneth R. Maccrimmon
Organizations
- University of California, Los Angeles