SOME REMARKS ON EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING

Abstract

A critical analysis of the technique of exponential smoothing as a demand forecasting tool in inventory theory. Certain standard formulas which have been developed for this technique are shown to be only asymptotically valid and therefore suspect when the number of demand periods is small. Alternate formulas, valid for any number of time periods, are derived for one special case that is commonly treated. Certain statistical weaknesses of this forecasting technique are then analyzed and, in particular, the use of mean absolute deviation to estimate variability is criticized.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Dec 01, 1966
Accession Number
AD0645144

Entities

People

  • Peter W. Zehna

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Books
  • Computers
  • Data Science
  • Distribution Theory
  • Estimators
  • Information Science
  • Inventory
  • Literature
  • Mathematics
  • Notation
  • Probability
  • Probability Distributions
  • Random Variables
  • Standards
  • Statistical Estimation
  • Surveys
  • Textbooks

Fields of Study

  • Mathematics

Readers

  • Operations Research
  • Theoretical Analysis.