THE IMPORTANCE OF THE DATA-GENERATING MODEL IN PROBABILITY ESTIMATION,

Abstract

When subjects appear to do poorly in a complex probability estimation task, they may be making careful estimates based on a different data-generating model than the one used by the experimenters. Eleven subjects estimated for 150 trials the probability that a dropped 'bomb' had been aimed at one of two cities. Correlations between subjects' estimates and probabilities generated by the correct, circular normal model and by a simple, incorrect ratio of distances model showed six subjects using the wrong model with great accuracy. The usual analysis of such data, in which a possible confusion about the data-generation model is disregarded, would have led to the misleading conclusion that these subjects were very inaccurate at the task. (Author)

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Apr 01, 1967
Accession Number
AD0651108

Entities

People

  • George J. Fenney
  • Sarah Lichtenstein

Organizations

  • RAND Corporation

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Accuracy
  • Behavior And Behavior Mechanisms
  • Cooperation
  • Demographic Cohorts
  • Neurobehavioral Manifestations
  • Probability

Fields of Study

  • Psychology

Readers

  • Educational Psychology
  • Regression Analysis.
  • Theoretical Analysis.

Technology Areas

  • AI & ML
  • AI & ML - Bayesian Inference