A HEURISTIC COMPROMISE BETWEEN PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS AND LIMITED RESOURCES

Abstract

This paper proposes an analytical technique for modeling by the analyst of a particular decision situation. Evidence supporting the basic proposal, properties of the technique, discussions of its possible applications, and examples are also presented. The basic problem is a compromise between the probability of success in a single trial versus the total expected number of successes over many trials under the constraint of a limited and uncertain resource. The analogous situation of choosing an operating point for a system which is a compromise between the effectiveness of the system and its efficiency (effectiveness divided by cost) is also discussed.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Aug 01, 1967
Accession Number
AD0657168

Entities

People

  • Murray Turoff

Organizations

  • Institute for Defense Analyses

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Human Systems
  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Binomials
  • Boundaries
  • Complex Systems
  • Computer Simulations
  • Confidence Limits
  • Efficiency
  • Equations
  • Investments
  • Mathematics
  • Motivation
  • Observation
  • Probability
  • Probability Distributions
  • Psychological Theory
  • Psychology
  • Self Assembly
  • Uncertainty

Fields of Study

  • Computer science
  • Mathematics

Readers

  • Regression Analysis.
  • Systems Analysis and Design