RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT IN THE PRESENCE OF RELIABILITY GROWTH

Abstract

A methodology is presented for estimating current and future reliability of complex weapon systems that show reliability growth during their development and early operational phases. The study proposes four reliability growth models or patterns that can be fitted to actual data experience to determine the quantitative characteristics of the growth within relatively well- defined tolerances. This is achieved by defining appropriate parametric models and subsequently using maximum likelihood procedures to obtain estimates of the parameters. Comparison of the models shows that under the conditions set forth in this study, three are generally superior in their predictive and assessment characteristics to representative nonparametric methods and to an applicable Bayesian procedure.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Sep 01, 1967
Accession Number
AD0659773

Entities

People

  • A. J. Gross
  • M. Kamins

Organizations

  • RAND Corporation

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Air Force
  • Asymptotic Normality
  • Ballistic Missiles
  • Computational Science
  • Confidence Limits
  • Data Analysis
  • Data Mining
  • Data Science
  • Equations
  • Estimators
  • Information Science
  • Probability
  • Statistical Algorithms
  • Two Dimensional
  • United States
  • Weapon Systems
  • Weapons

Fields of Study

  • Engineering

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Regression Analysis.

Technology Areas

  • AI & ML
  • AI & ML - Bayesian Inference
  • AI & ML - DoD AI Strategy