A NUMERICAL SCHEME FOR THE PREDICTION OF HURRICANE AND TYPHOON MOVEMENT
Abstract
The vector motion of severe tropical cyclones (including storm, hurricane/typhoon stages) is forecasted by a numerical scheme which involves two steps: (a) Numerical geostrophic steering of the center of the cyclone using the U. S. Navy Fleet Numerical Weather Facility's (FNWF) operationally-produced smoothed isobaric height fields, called SR. (b) The numerical-steering prediction is objectively modified to adjust for bias (i.e., deficiency in both zonal and meridonal motion) by utilizing errors made in the most recent 12- and 24-hour numerical-steering forecasts. Stratification of error statistics by area, trajectory and stage of storm, intercomparison with ESSA's NHC-64 technique, discussion of merits and deficiencies of the research program relative to operational forecasts and current experiments at FNWF, are discussed.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Dec 01, 1967
- Accession Number
- AD0663459
Entities
People
- Robert J. Renard
Organizations
- Naval Postgraduate School