RELIABILITY PREDICTIONS FROM AN ART TO A SCIENCE,
Abstract
The paper comments upon reliability predictions and the degree to which precise methods are being employed to make quantitative estimates of future reliability performance. The demand for high product reliability and maintainability is forcing attention to these subjects from the large system manufacturer down to the piece-part producer. Contracting for guaranteed reliability performance involves heavy risks, and accurate predictions are needed early in the program. The state-of-the-art in making precise quantitative reliability estimates in the airplane business is considered primitive and largely a matter of exercising judgment in combining bits of historical data and wishful thinking. A large portion of the aerospace industry is participating, and slow progress is being made toward the development of a worth-while and effective capability. (Author)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Nov 01, 1967
- Accession Number
- AD0664372
Entities
People
- K. S. Wilson