ESTIMATING CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY AND PERSISTENCE

Abstract

The report describes a statistical model and automated techniques which provide estimates of conditional and persistence probability of meteorological events for periods to 48 and 24 hours, respectively. The products are designed to assist forecasters and planners in instances where conditional and persistence frequencies are not obtainable by directly processing observational data. The model considers the diurnal variability of the event by assuming joint probability according to elliptical distributions defined by known (or estimated) hourly unconditional probabilities and lag correlation coefficients obtained from previously summarized data. A computer program performs the integrations by transforming the elliptical distributions to the circular normal with rotated axes, and then counting the number of mil- frequency units in each of the joint probability zones. Comparison of conditional and persistence probability estimates of categorized cloud cover and ceiling/visibility events with observed frequencies of occurrence reveal root- mean-square differences of the order of 5% to 15%.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jun 01, 1968
Accession Number
AD0671506

Entities

People

  • John T. Mccabe

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes
  • Space

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Air Force
  • California
  • Classification
  • Cloud Cover
  • Clouds
  • Coefficients
  • Computer Programs
  • Computers
  • Databases
  • Delphi Method
  • Diagrams
  • Meteorology
  • Normal Distribution
  • Probability
  • Security
  • Statistics
  • Visibility

Fields of Study

  • Mathematics

Readers

  • Atmospheric Science/Meteorology
  • Statistical inference.