CHANCE OF ALL SUCCESS FOR INDEPENDENT BINOMIAL EVENTS WITH LARGE SUCCESS PROBABILITIES.

Abstract

Consider reliability situations where all of n independent steps or operations must be satisfactory (successes) if the overall operation is to be satisfactory. The interest is in reliability levels that are at least moderately high. That is, the probability of obtaining successes for all steps and operations is at least moderately near unity. An approximate expression, also sharp upper and lower bounds, are developed for the probability of all successes. These results are applicable when n(1 - p) < 1, where p is the arithmetic average of the n probabilities of success for the steps and operations. The approximate expression is near the bounds when n(1 - p) = or < .25 and the relative error is less than one percent when n(1 - p) = or < .17; then, the true probability is at least .75 and at least .83, respectively. These results depend only on n and p. They are applicable for all n = or > 1 and any set of success probabilities. (Author)

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Sep 16, 1968
Accession Number
AD0679681

Entities

People

  • John E. Walsh

Organizations

  • Southern Methodist University

Tags

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Arithmetic
  • Binomials
  • Probability
  • Reliability

Fields of Study

  • Mathematics

Readers

  • Joint Military Operations and Doctrine.
  • Mathematics or Statistics
  • Statistical inference.