CLIMATIC NORMALS AS PREDICTORS. PART 4: VERIFICATION

Abstract

The length of the antecedent period for which the mean provides the minimum variance estimate of the next year's temperature, rainfall, and number of rainy days is calculated for a U.S. climatological benchmark station, a variety of foreign stations, and for percent of possible sunshine at 9 U.S. stations. Results verify the findings reported previously, and found by other authors, that the optimum record length varies widely from element to element and month to month, but shows some regional consistency. For all elements, stations, and months combined, all antecedent periods 10 to 40 years long yield averages which, on the whole, are about equal in predictive accuracy.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Dec 01, 1968
Accession Number
AD0687137

Entities

People

  • Arnold Court

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Space

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Accuracy
  • Air Force
  • Climate
  • Consistency
  • Contracts
  • Estimators
  • Extrapolation
  • Instrumentation
  • Measurement
  • Power Spectra
  • Precipitation
  • Rainfall
  • South Africa
  • Statistical Samples
  • United States
  • Urban Areas
  • Verification

Readers

  • Atmospheric Science/Meteorology
  • Computational Modeling and Simulation