ESTABLISHING CONFIDENCE LIMITS ON DAMAGE ASSESSMENT ESTIMATES: AN EXAMINATION OF TWO MODELS.

Abstract

Casualty prediction in the case of nuclear war, and the confidence limits which can be placed on estimates of civilian fatalities are considered. Attention is directed at the uncertainties in casualty prediction introduced by the less than a dozen parameters used in two specific damage assessment models, namely the BRISK/FRISK and the QUICK COUNT models. The intent of the study is twofold: first, to develop a general method for measuring the degree of confidence to be associated with a specified fatality estimate, given the damage assessment model and appropriate inputs; and second, to demonstrate the method by example. (Author)

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Apr 01, 1969
Accession Number
AD0689543

Entities

People

  • Charles W. Gardner
  • Thomas W. White

Organizations

  • Institute for Defense Analyses

Tags

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Casualties
  • Confidence Limits
  • Damage
  • Damage Assessment
  • Data Science
  • Fatalities
  • Information Science
  • Uncertainty

Readers

  • Aviation Safety Risk Assessment.
  • Computational Modeling and Simulation