THE PREDICTION OF OPERATIONAL SUCCESS.

Abstract

A general procedure for obtaining a direct estimate of confidence in the success of a process is developed. The measure of confidence is an expected value of reliability based on a Bayesian a posteriori distribution. A flexible model of the a priori distribution permits the combination of a priori estimates with the results of either attribute (success or failure, or variate (measurement) testing. A self-contained applications section summarizes the methods of computation. (Author)

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jun 16, 1969
Accession Number
AD0689748

Entities

People

  • Joseph W. Duroux

Organizations

  • The Aerospace Corporation

Tags

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Computations
  • Measurement
  • Reliability

Readers

  • Regression Analysis.

Technology Areas

  • AI & ML
  • AI & ML - Bayesian Inference