The Delphi Method: An Experimental Study of Group Opinion

Abstract

A report of results of experimentation on the effectiveness of Delphi procedures, which incorporate anonymous response, iteration and controlled feedback, and statistical group response to elicit and refine group judgments where exact knowledge is unavailable. In spring 1968, Rand conducted 10 experiments using over 150 university students. Questions related to almanac-type information. Results showed that controlled feedback, compared with face-to-face discussion, improved the accuracy of group estimates, thus validating the use of Delphi techniques in areas of partial information. Insight was gained into group information processes. A meaningful estimate of the accuracy of a group response to a given question can be obtained by combining individual self-rating of competence on that question into a group rating. Adding this result to an observed relationship between accuracy and standard deviation makes it possible to attach accuracy scores to the products of a Delphi exercise.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jun 01, 1969
Accession Number
AD0690498

Entities

People

  • Norman C. Dalkey

Organizations

  • RAND Corporation

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Biomedical

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Accuracy
  • Air Force
  • Corporations
  • Data Science
  • Delphi Method
  • Experimental Data
  • Feedback
  • Information Science
  • Iterations
  • Judgment
  • Materials
  • Measuring Instruments
  • Probability
  • Standards
  • Statistics
  • Students
  • Test And Evaluation

Readers

  • Instructional Design and Training Evaluation.
  • Regression Analysis.
  • Team-Based Human-Centered Cognitive Task Decision Making and Information Performance.