A CRITIQUE OF NAROLL'S STATISTICAL APPROACH TO TESTING CONTEMPORARY HYPOTHESES ABOUT STRATEGIC DETERRENCE WITH HISTORICAL DATA.

Abstract

Raoul Naroll has developed a method of utilizing historical data to test contemporary hypotheses concerning optimum military and political strategies which nations may employ in dealing with one another. The data covers long time spans in order to maximize the independence of cases and, thereby, to permit the application of statistical probability models to historical data in ways not feasible before. Naroll has also developed several methods of data quality control inspired by concepts from industrial quality control. Naroll's historical approach is described, criticized, and evaluated as a means of testing strategic hypotheses and providing strategic planners with a sounder basis upon which to complete their missions. (Author)

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
May 01, 1969
Accession Number
AD0696217

Entities

People

  • Thomas W. Milburn

Organizations

  • Northwestern University

Tags

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Deterrence
  • Hypotheses
  • Quality Control

Readers

  • Regression Analysis.
  • Strategic Security Studies