A CRITIQUE OF NAROLL'S STATISTICAL APPROACH TO TESTING CONTEMPORARY HYPOTHESES ABOUT STRATEGIC DETERRENCE WITH HISTORICAL DATA.
Abstract
Raoul Naroll has developed a method of utilizing historical data to test contemporary hypotheses concerning optimum military and political strategies which nations may employ in dealing with one another. The data covers long time spans in order to maximize the independence of cases and, thereby, to permit the application of statistical probability models to historical data in ways not feasible before. Naroll has also developed several methods of data quality control inspired by concepts from industrial quality control. Naroll's historical approach is described, criticized, and evaluated as a means of testing strategic hypotheses and providing strategic planners with a sounder basis upon which to complete their missions. (Author)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- May 01, 1969
- Accession Number
- AD0696217
Entities
People
- Thomas W. Milburn
Organizations
- Northwestern University