EVALUATING PROBABILITY FORECASTS.
Abstract
The accuracy of an aggregate of probability forecasts involves two basic attributes which are called reliability and sharpness. By expanding the equation of the Brier-Allen Probability Score, consistent definitions of reliability and sharpness are derived in which the correlation coefficient between forecasts and outcomes has a key role. Presented is a graphic means of comparing aggregates of probability forecasts in terms of their reliability and sharpness. (Author)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Dec 15, 1969
- Accession Number
- AD0701375
Entities
People
- James S. Kennedy
- Preston G. Epperson