AN ANALYSIS OF MEAN ABSOLUTE DEVIATION VARIABILITY

Abstract

Prediction of demand and setting reorder levels by exponential smoothing and mean absolute deviation is studied for an inventory system. The relation between the standard deviation and mean absolute deviation of demand distribution is discussed. Asymptotic first and second moments of the exponentially-smoothed forecast errors (MAD) are derived. Results obtained from simulation of several normal systems indicated that the smoothing technique is inferior to the classical maximum likelihood estimation method.

Open PDF

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Oct 01, 1969
Accession Number
AD0701679

Entities

People

  • Ozden Ornek

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Coefficients
  • Computations
  • Computer Programs
  • Computer Simulations
  • Computers
  • Distribution Functions
  • Maximum Likelihood Estimation
  • Normal Distribution
  • Observation
  • Probability
  • Probability Distributions
  • Random Variables
  • Simulations
  • Standards
  • Statistical Analysis
  • Statistics
  • United States

Fields of Study

  • Mathematics

Readers

  • Approximation Theory.
  • Logistics and Supply Chain Management.
  • Regression Analysis.