ANOTHER ESTIMATE OF EXPECTED CRITICAL PATH LENGTH IN PERT NETWORKS

Abstract

The Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) is a very well- known and widely-applied method for estimating the amount of time required to complete a complex project. The simplest way to estimate the expected time to complete the project is to assume each subtask takes exactly its expected time to complete; and then find a critical path. This procedure, except in very simple cases, gives an underestimate of the true expected time required. In 1962 D. R. Fulkerson published a technique for estimating the expected time required which gives values intermediate between the simplest estimate and the true value. The present paper suggests another technique which, while more complex than Fulkerson's method, is more accurate in that it gives estimates which fall between Fulkerson's estimates and the true expected value.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Mar 01, 1970
Accession Number
AD0702673

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