INVESTIGATION OF THE SENSITIVITY OF A PATROLLING SUBMARINE'S CAPABILITY TO GAIN A DETECTION AS A FUNCTION OF INCREASING SURFACE SHIP SPEEDS.
Abstract
Numerical integration and Monte Carlo techniques are used in the development of several models in order to determine the effect on probability of random detection of a merchant ship using speeds up to 90 knots by a 10-knot submarine patrolling a back-and-forth barrier. A definite range law for detection is assumed. Individual encounter models are developed for ship tracks which are extended to include the assumption of a normal distribution of crossing points. Computer programs of the models, written in the FORTRAN IV language, are included. The results are applied in a numerical example. It is concluded that while increases in ship speeds do result in substantial decrease in probability of detection by a submarine in the case of a single barrier transit, a speed advantage alone when applied to a typical transit of the North Atlantic will not appreciably decrease the overall detection probability. (Author)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Oct 01, 1969
- Accession Number
- AD0706055
Entities
People
- Joseph Henry Cyr
- Leonard Bento Santos
Organizations
- Naval Postgraduate School