PREDICTIVE TECHNIQUES STUDY. PHASE I. COMPARISON OF SOME FORECAST METHODS.
Abstract
The report discusses the results of the research performed on Phase I of the Predictive Techniques Study. Phase I consisted of a short-term effort to obtain indications whether single or double exponential smoothing, double moving average, or moving least squares are more accurate than single moving average for forecasting. Phase I dealt only with computer generated artificial 'demand patterns'; thirty-nine runs were made on various demand patterns, and the alternative forecast methods evaluated for each run. A unique feature is that varying forecast lead times are taken into account (short-term vs. medium-term vs. long-term). Other parameters being varied include: the exponential smoothing constant alpha, mean demand, variance of demand (random) fluctuation, slope of trend when applicable. (Author)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- May 01, 1970
- Accession Number
- AD0706088
Entities
People
- J. R. Stuart
- L. L. Blair
- M. D. Lum