THE DYNAMIC STATISTICAL METHOD OF FORECASTING HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PROCESSES AND ITS PRACTICAL APPLICATION (Dinamiko-Statisticheskii Metod Prognozirovaniya Gidrometeorologicheskikh Protsessov i Ego Prakticheskoe Primenenie),
Abstract
The forecasting of Series Q(T) is based on the Alyekhin method. Its essentials are as follows. The method is designed for forecasts with earliness varying from one to more years of the mean annual or seasonal phenomena averaged for areas not smaller than 50,000 square km. It consists of multiple linear extrapolation of multiannual series of macrophonomenon by using equation (1) defined in the text. The recommended source material for forecasting must be based on systematic observations for at least 50 years. The method can be used in forecasting phenomena whose correlated functions have a period not shorter than 8 years. The processing of forecasts requires the calculation of deviations from the mean value, of correlation function with the use of diagrams in the form of mean curves. To make the method more effective, additional research with regard to thermal and basic variables in various areas is necessary.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 1970
- Accession Number
- AD0709127
Entities
People
- R. V. Kondratovich
- V. G. Gvozdeva
- Yu. M. Alyokhin
Organizations
- Naval Oceanographic Office