OPERATIONAL EVALUATION OF A CEILING AND VISIBILITY PREDICTION TECHNIQUE.
Abstract
Statistical forecasts of ceiling and visibility were computed in real time for eight major terminals and transmitted for the information of the forecasters preparing the official forecasts. Verification of subjective forecasts made before and after examination of the statistical forecasts provided an estimate (in terms of an arbitrary score) of the usefulness of the statistical forecasts as guidance. The experiment demonstrated the feasibility of distributing such forecasts from a central computer, and provided information on the stability of statistical forecast equations when derived from a large data sample and applied to a much later period. The equations were strongest in forecasting visibility seven hours in advance. Their greatest weakness was in the prediction of short period changes in low ceilings and low visibilities. (Author)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Dec 01, 1969
- Accession Number
- AD0709470
Entities
People
- Roger A. Allen