AN AD HOC BAYESIAN METHOD FOR DETERMINING LOWER CONFIDENCE LIMITS

Abstract

The thesis proposes and analyzes an ad hoc Bayesian method for determining lower confidence limits for estimates of mission reliability of single components using pass/fail test data. Several test sequences with different underlying reliabilities are simulated. After each trial the lower confidence limits are calculated using the Classical method, the Bayesian method and the proposed method. This is followed by an accuracy simulation to estimate the accuracy of the proposed method. The proposed method shows promise for future usefulness in that it is capable of demonstrating a high degree of reliability with a relatively small number of trials while maintaining some degree of protection against accepting unreliable components.

Open PDF

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Sep 01, 1970
Accession Number
AD0713075

Entities

People

  • John Courtney Cartland Jr

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Accuracy
  • Bibliographies
  • Computer Programs
  • Computers
  • Confidence Limits
  • Handbooks
  • Language
  • Random Variables
  • Reliability
  • Sequences
  • Simulations
  • Standards
  • United States
  • Weapon Systems

Readers

  • Computer Networking
  • Regression Analysis.

Technology Areas

  • AI & ML
  • AI & ML - Bayesian Inference
  • AI & ML - Machine Learning Algorithms