HISTORICAL SIMULATION: A PROCEDURE FOR THE EVALUATION OF ESTIMATING PROCEDURES. VOLUME I. PROCEDURE DEVELOPMENT AND DESCRIPTION

Abstract

A recurring problem faced by many analysts is that of devising estimating procedures for predicting some aspect of the future from rather meager data. This is particularly true for the cost analyst who is concerned with estimating the resource requirements of future military systems. Historical Simulation is a method of evaluating candidate (cost) estimating procedures on the basis of their ability to simulate predictions using data that would have been available. In this fashion, Historical Simulation avoids relying on the central evaluation assumption of Regression Theory, namely, that which fits the past data best will predict the future best. This conceptual difference gives Historical Simulation several unique features.

Open PDF

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jun 01, 1969
Accession Number
AD0713174

Entities

People

  • C. A. Graver

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Air Platforms
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Aircrafts
  • Artificial Intelligence
  • Computer Programs
  • Computers
  • Cost Models
  • Curve Fitting
  • Data Science
  • Databases
  • Estimators
  • Goodness Of Fit Tests
  • Information Science
  • Knowledge Management
  • Procurement
  • Regression Analysis
  • Statistical Algorithms
  • Statistics
  • Systems Analysis

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Life Cycle Cost Analysis
  • Systems Analysis and Design