Physical-Statistical Method of Long-Range Weather Forecasting,
Abstract
The author has analyzed the principal sources and types of errors in the hydrodynamic method of forecasting the mean-monthly air temperature anomaly. These methods have been in use for several years at the Hydrometeorological Center of the USSR. Linearization of the thermo and hydrodynamic equations is shown not to be responsible for the numerical errors encountered in this method, which is demonstrated to correctly reflect the mechanism of atmospheric processes and to be capable of providing long-range numerical predictions suitable for practical use. Attention is called, in connection with this method, to the importance of initial aerological information covering the territory of the northern hemisphere and to the general inadequacy of these data. It is argued that since the regions of poor meteorological and aerological coverage remain constant, they should give rise to systematic errors in the numerical forecasting of the mean-monthly air temperature anomaly. (Author)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Sep 07, 1970
- Accession Number
- AD0714423
Entities
People
- N. I. Zverev
Organizations
- National Air and Space Intelligence Center