Principal Component Analysis of Time Series 1,2

Abstract

The primary purpose of this dissertation is to investigate the properties of the principal components of a finite set of random variables comprising a part of a discrete time series. In the first chapter, the covariance structure between a set of random variables y, x sub 1,...,x sub p, which yields the result that the first k( <p) principal components of x sub 1,.. .,x sub p provide a better predictor of y(in the sense of expected squared error) than do any k of the variables x sub 1,...,x sub p themselves, is examined. In the remaining chapters, principal component processes which are linear combinations of x(t), x(t-1),...,x(t-n) x(t) is a random process and n is an arbitrary positive integer, are defined and their properties investigated in terms of their frequency content. It is shown that when x(t) is a stationary moving average process, an autoregressive process, or a mixed moving average autoregressive process, the first principal component process tends (as n approaches infinity) to contain only the frequency at which the spectral density of x(t) obtains its maximum value. It is shown, moreover, that when the process x(t) contains deterministic components such as a trend or a periodic component, certain of the principal components processes tend to model those deterministic components.

Open PDF

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Sep 01, 1970
Accession Number
AD0716591

Entities

People

  • J. Richard Stewart

Organizations

  • Ohio State University

Tags

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Air Force
  • Covariance
  • Data Science
  • Eigenvalues
  • Eigenvectors
  • Factor Analysis
  • Information Science
  • New York
  • Random Variables
  • Regression Analysis
  • Stationary Processes
  • Statistical Analysis
  • Stochastic Processes
  • Transfer Functions
  • United States
  • United States Government
  • White Noise

Fields of Study

  • Mathematics

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Linear Algebra
  • Mathematical Modeling and Probability Theory.