Fundamental Limitations in Tracing the Origins of Technology
Abstract
A simple model from statistical communication theory is used to evaluate the probability of success in tracing research results which comprise origins of technology. The model has also been used to evaluate the probability of success in tracing research and technology origins of systems. A by-product of the study is the use of the same model for evaluating the probability of success of forecasting applications of research results and of technology advances. Use of the model has permitted the conclusion that certain fundamental limitations to successful tracing and forecasting exist. These limitations are analogous to well-known physical limitations in successful electrical communication -- bandwidth and noise. Bandwidth and noise are closely related to the classification systems for the originating categories (bandwidth) and for the receiving categories (noise).
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jun 01, 1970
- Accession Number
- AD0717701
Entities
People
- Ernest J. Davis Jr