Predictive and Adaptive Processes in the Control of Air Force Systems.
Abstract
The objective of this project is to investigate adaptive and predictive processes in planning, decision, and control systems. Real and fast time analog computing equipment were connected via an especially developed interface device to a desk top digital computer, to form together a unique small laboratory facility for studying adaptive and predictive processes and devices. In this first year of the project, three experimental studies of prediction in manual control were conducted. A display blanking technique established that the operator's error in predicting the outcome of his control actions is very nearly proportional to the length of time ahead that he predicts. This result held for second and third order controlled elements throughout the range of prediction times of concern in predictive control (1 to 9 seconds in these studies). A functioning predictive model of the human operator was then mechanized which showed many of the characteristics of manual control, including an insensitivity to changes in controller signal gain that is typical of human operators but not of non-predictive forms of human operator model. The final study utilized the display blanking technique again to show that prediction: reflected learing in a manual control loop; was very sensitive to operator loading via a secondary tracking task; and was highly resistant to effects of operator fatigue. (Author)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jul 30, 1970
- Accession Number
- AD0721220
Entities
People
- Charles R. Kelley
- Daniel J. Prosin