A Car-Following Model Relating Reaction Time and Temporal Headways to Accident Frequency.

Abstract

The paper deals with a car-following model relating driver reaction time, temporal headway and deceleration response to accident frequency. The central goal is to assess the sensitivity of 'collision' probability to a shift in expected reaction time. This problem eventually reduces to determining the sensitivity of the probability of 'ruin' to changes in the drift of the process of cumulative reaction times. 'Diffusion-type' approximations are used and it is found that additive changes in mean reaction time correspond to multiplicative changes in 'collision' probability. Numerical examples are given to illustrate this effect. (Author)

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Apr 01, 1971
Accession Number
AD0727095

Entities

People

  • Edward A. Brill

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Accidents
  • Additives (Chemicals)
  • Collisions
  • Deceleration
  • Diffusion
  • Frequency
  • Probability
  • Reaction Time
  • Sensitivity

Fields of Study

  • Mathematics

Readers

  • Aviation Safety Risk Assessment.
  • Mathematical Modeling and Probability Theory.
  • Molecular Photonics/Laser Physics